The June improvement marks a shift from May, when residential gas and electric storage shipments were both below prior-year levels. Still, the year-to-date figures show that the market has not completely erased the declines accumulated earlier in 2026. Residential shipments remain below last year's pace through the first six months, while commercial results continue to vary by product category.

Residential Shipments Return to Monthly Growth

Residential storage water heaters had a stronger June after both gas and electric shipments declined year over year in May.

According to AHRI, manufacturers shipped 363,347 residential gas storage water heaters in June, a 6.7% increase from the 340,647 units shipped in June 2025.

Residential electric storage shipments also moved into positive territory, although the increase was smaller. Manufacturers shipped 422,813 units during June, up 0.8% from 419,323 units during the same month last year.

Image courtesy of AHRI.

The monthly gains helped narrow the year-to-date declines in both categories.

Through June, residential gas storage shipments totaled 2,153,890 units, down 3.6% from 2,233,304 units during the first six months of 2025. Residential electric storage shipments totaled 2,491,598 units, representing a 5.4% decline from 2,634,037 units last year.

Those figures show a residential market that improved in June but remains behind 2025 overall. In May, year-to-date gas shipments had been down 5.4%, while electric shipments were down 6.6%. June's stronger monthly performance reduced those deficits to 3.6% and 5.4%, respectively.

For contractors, manufacturers and wholesalers watching the category, the distinction between monthly and year-to-date performance is important. One stronger month does not erase the softer shipment activity seen earlier in the year, but June represents a departure from the pattern of year-over-year monthly declines seen in recent AHRI reports.

Commercial Electric Shipments Jump

The commercial market presented a different picture in June, with gas and electric storage water heaters moving in opposite directions.

Commercial electric storage water heater shipments climbed 10.9% year over year, reaching 15,283 units compared with 13,786 units in June 2025.

That represents a notable change from May, when commercial electric shipments fell 16.3% year over year.

Despite June's double-digit increase, commercial electric shipments remain slightly below last year's levels on a year-to-date basis. Manufacturers shipped 85,189 units through June, down 2.1% from 87,050 units during the same period in 2025.

Image courtesy of AHRI.

Commercial gas storage water heaters moved in the opposite direction during the month. Shipments declined 5% to 7,576 units, compared with 7,975 units in June 2025.

However, commercial gas remains the only storage water heater category tracked in the report with positive year-to-date growth. Shipments totaled 47,786 units through June, up 2.3% from 46,706 units during the first half of 2025.

That creates an interesting split in the commercial numbers. Electric storage water heaters posted the strongest monthly growth in June but remain down for the year, while commercial gas shipments declined during the month but remain ahead of their 2025 year-to-date total.

A Stronger June, but an Uneven First Half

Taken together, AHRI's June data provides a somewhat brighter picture of water heater shipment activity than the May report.

Three of the four storage water heater categories posted year-over-year monthly increases: residential gas rose 6.7%, residential electric increased 0.8% and commercial electric jumped 10.9%. Commercial gas was the exception, declining 5%.

The year-to-date numbers, however, remain more subdued.

Through the first half of 2026, residential gas shipments are down 3.6%, residential electric shipments are down 5.4% and commercial electric shipments are down 2.1%. Commercial gas storage water heaters remain the outlier, with shipments up 2.3% compared with the first six months of 2025.

The June results therefore point to improvement without yet establishing a broader reversal. After five months in which residential shipment totals consistently trailed 2025, June helped close some of that gap. Commercial activity remains more fragmented, with monthly and year-to-date performance varying considerably between gas and electric products.

As the industry enters the second half of 2026, upcoming AHRI reports will provide a clearer indication of whether June's stronger residential and commercial electric numbers represent the beginning of a more sustained shift or simply a stronger month within an otherwise softer year.