Heating Perceptions | Scott Secor
Why some boiler replacement jobs may not be the right fit
Multi-bid residential boiler replacements are changing the economics of estimating, and sometimes, it’s smarter to walk away.

I have been doing estimates for replacement boilers for many years. In almost every case, I visited the site, took notes, photos, met with the client, etc. On rare occasion, one of my guys would be at the site and learn the boiler failed and had to be replaced. In these situations, my employee would take notes and photos, and forward them to me at the end of the day.
For approximately thirty years, I learned that in many cases, I was the only bidder. This is especially true if we serviced the equipment regularly in the past. Other times, the customer might have gotten our phone number from the phone book (remember them?), a neighbor or a relative. This has served us well over the years, as we have got many great jobs along with many great long-term customers.
On commercial and the occasional industrial jobs, we have gotten referrals from plumbers, electricians, general contractors, etc. We have also gotten leads from our suppliers and a few manufacturers’ representatives.
I must admit that we haven’t kept track of our winning bid ratio, but I suppose it is something like this:
- Residential boiler replacement: 75% of the time we get the job.
- Commercial boiler replacement: 65% of the time we get the job.
- If we already had the residential or commercial client as a regular customer, we get the job 90% of the time.
- If it a large commercial job and we were invited to bid as an “outsider,” we get the job about 25% of the time.
We have been part of the local utility company’s programs for as long as I can remember. Years ago, when many customers in our area were converting from oil to gas heat, we got a new lead almost every week. Today, we might get a few leads directly from the utility in a year. In the past year or so, we have noticed that customers that visit the utility website are finding our phone number and calling us directly. This is unusual, and rarely happened in the past.
In the last few months, I have noticed an unusual pattern: each of the cases was a residential steam boiler replacement. Two were gas to gas, one was oil to gas.
On the first job, I got a call on a Saturday night from a supplier we do a lot of business with. He said his best customer (apparently better than me, company is about ten times the size of our company) needed someone that is good at replacing residential steam boilers. I guess this contractor is too “big” to do residential steam boilers (I think it is a large union shop that focuses on new commercial construction).
I called the woman that owns the home and spoke to her. She works for the company that handles the big company’s billing; now I understand why everyone wants to help this woman out. She had the fireplace going, and a few electric space heaters running. We agreed that I would visit Sunday morning.
When I arrived, I noticed every window in the house was sweating. I also noticed how clammy it was as we talked in the living room. Oddly, the homeowner seemed to know a lot about boiler replacement, boiler sizing, how to measure radiators, etc. She also knew the best path to get the old boiler out and the new boiler in. I asked if she had an outside chimney and she responded yes, without hesitation. By now I’m scratching my head how a bookkeeper knows so much about boiler replacements. I asked why the house was like a sauna, she told me in addition to the fireplace and the electric heaters, they have been boiling water on the stove for forty-eight hours straight.
The condensation was literally dripping from the ceiling on most of the first floor (except the room with the fireplace). She thanked me for coming, and as I walked out the front door, she mentioned in passing that I was the seventh person to look at the job in the last three days. We did not get the job.
On the second job, I got a call on a Friday afternoon. This customer found our number on the utility company’s website. Apparently, her indoor oil tank basement failed and leaked some oil into the basement. Her oil company already had a remediation company at the site, and just installed a temporary outdoor tank in her backyard and removed the leaking tank in pieces.
For approximately thirty years, I learned that in many cases, I was the only bidder.
When I got to the house, the oil company (with a fantastic reputation) was leaving after giving her an estimate. I measured all the radiators with exception of a locked bedroom. Apparently, Fido was in this bedroom and was ready to chew through the raised paned door. The owner knew the dimensions of this radiator and had it written down. She mentioned that her heating system would not qualify for the rebate program, as it was steam and the program only considered high efficiency hot water boilers.
I could smell the oil that leaked into the basement slab when I entered the living room; apparently, they were used to it. After discussing her options, I asked if she and her adult son had any questions. She responded with, “You are the sixth contractor to look at this system, can you get the estimate to me tonight so I can make a decision next week.” After I learned this, I decided not to waste my time writing the estimate on a Friday night.
The third job was a little different. This customer admitted that he had a few other bids when I got there. Again, I measured the radiators, looked at the boiler, piping, main vents, chimney connections, etc. He then asked me to sit down at the dining room table that was mostly covered with stacks of papers. I sat at the clear spot, and he sat at a not so clear spot. He asked me what I thought the job would cost. Fortunately, I have bid many similar jobs recently, so I was well versed in rough numbers. Before I could speak, he laid out all of my competitors’ bids in front of me. Then he mentioned that we were supposed to be the best in the business and wanted us to undercut all the competition. I politely said I cannot beat everyone’s price and headed for the front door. By the way, my price would have been in the middle of the pack. We did not get this job either.
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