While construction employment hasn’t fallen as fast as the housing collapse would indicate, according to a recent ADP National Employment Report, U.S. construction jobs could fall by 250,000 by the end of next year.

Analysts at Macroeconomic Advisers, which prepares the monthly report, looked at Labor Department figures and believe construction employment already may have fallen by 160,000 jobs below what is being reported in current payroll data. The ADP study predicts an average 14,000 jobs lost per month over the next year and a half. However, the study’s economists believe the loss won’t be “calamitous” for the national economy. “Indeed, such a decline would be smaller than many commentators suggest is likely.”

The new study also found that employment in large- and medium-sized construction companies is down, while smaller companies have not had major layoffs. There’s also been a shift to different kinds of construction.

According to the report, the drop in construction employment should be “essentially done” by next spring.