It’s easy to be a forecaster, be it of weather, the economy or football games. You simply take today’s trends and extrapolate them into the future. See that low pressure system building in the West? It means storms in the Midwest a few days later. If the stock market is rising, it’s reason to get bullish; if it’s dropping, the bears growl; if it gyrates, Wall Street babbles about roller coasters. When football teams match up, those with the best records win more often than not.
What forecasters can’t foresee are unanticipated changes. When’s the last time you heard a weatherperson predict a sudden shift in direction for that low pressure system? How many economic gurus are going out on a limb to foretell dramatically different fortunes this year than last? Tell me of a sports prognosticator who predicted the last-place Indianapolis Colts to get their first win of the season past by beating the defending Super Bowl champs from Green Bay?